This was truly an echo bubble on AI agent coins, they went down -95% from their ATH, and on the first signs of life in the market, pumped 3x-5x again in a few weeks before going back to dead mode

Some charts are truly a work of art

This is the log chart of SANDBTC

It's still +120% above it's January 2021 lows

We are seeing the first signs of this phenomenon

I don't think it will last during days but it looks like all the altcoin sellers (=crypto natives) are now exhausted but there are still a lot of (potential!) $BTC sellers.

My guess is we should be close to bottoming here

I like $RESOLV as a long again here :

- Small cap (sub $30M) listed on Binance spot
- High OI/mcap ratio (>1) ie potential short squeeze
- Clean bottoming while the market has made lower lows
- Still a new coin
- Sub $200M FDV looks okay
- Could benefit from the CRCL pump / stablecoin narrative

Gun to my head, bottom's in and it's time to fish for an entry closer to the bottom of the wick, around $100k

I don't think we revisit $98.5k but who knows... we'll need to see how the market reacts at the NYO today

Entered in the top of the box and bounced

If you want to short, short altcoins...

That's particularly true after a bounce

Do you realize that ETFs and BTC treasury companies will keep buying $BTC for months ?

So don't be a pussy

Make sure that you will be long BTC (and not sidelined... or short) when the next leg of this kind happens

Examples of short legs I like :

$TRUMP
$XRP
$SUI
$VIRTUAL
$MOODENG
$IP
$XLM
$WIF
$KAITO
$MOVE
$HBAR
$ONDO
$ADA

I am not saying you SHOULD short, I said that if you wanted to short, targeting alts is better than BTC

I am net long but I always have some shorts open

Each time $BTC goes down -10%, you should remember how quickly it pumps back up

(and pray that we are not in the middle of one of these -20% dumps)

List of all BTC drawdowns since 2023 began, ignoring all drawdowns that were smaller than 10% :

-12%
-23%
-10%
-20%
-22%
-10%
-11%
-21%
-14%
-23%
-26%
-30%
-20%
-11%
-12%
-18%
-32%
-10%
-11%

A -30% dump is an exceptional entry
A -20% dump is usually a great dip to buy
A -10% dump can be a good dip if you have good reasons to think that we should bounce

$BTC price action will look more and more like $SPX price action and there is nothing you can do about this

We are obviously still far away from the end of this 'transition phase'

I find this $VIRTUAL chart quite fascinating

Massive up only runner and leader of the strongest on-chain narratives of 2024, Burj Khalifa over 3 months, and then a strong echo bubble capped at the $2 res

(It obviously looks very cooked here but the last time I said this it went up 60% the next day lol... pretty sure it's really cooked this time tho)

"Anotha one"

$BANANAS31

This was one of the nastiest, I've rarely seen such a controlled move up. Completely linear and with almost zero drawdown.

Extremely dangerous to short, here are the 2 ways to do it with lower risk imo :

- Wait for a first sign of weakness such as yesterday's move down that was V-reversed, and then you can start shorting with an invalidation slightly higher than the ATH (the risk is to be stopped out at the top ofc)

- Start scaling in the short once the market cap gets large enough so that you can feel the upside becomes "capped". Riskier because you don't have an invalidation, there is no certainty in such a trade, and a 3 sigma STD move could kill you.