If you're a bear and you see that $BTC does not give a single fuck about the IsraeI-Iran conflict, you would probably give up on shorting

Personally I'm a BTC perma-bull until further notice

$MSTR will most likely become eligible to get included in the S&P500 at the end of this quarter

This means a ton of passive inflows coming into MSTR, as well as frontrunning (in the price!) of the inclusion

Very strong catalyst which will obviously be great for $BTC too

One of the best bull cases for $HYPE at the current "elevated prices" is that the funds that were sidelined on $SOL from $20 to $200 have suffered so much that they don't want to live this a second time

Some trades I've taken :

Long $SKATE
Short $FORM
Short $ALT

Saylor gets a billy, deploys a billy, nothing surprising here.

Next week probably back to sub $200M

Average purchase price of Saylor last week :

$104,080

Recap of the past 2 weeks in crypto :

- $BTC in a range between $100k and $110k. Local bottoms on FUD events (Musk vs Trump conflict, Israel-Iran escalation)

- $HYPE reached a new ATH at $46, unstoppable run

- $SPX up +250% in a month, reached its previous ATH

- FARTCOIN listed on Coinbase and strong

- $CRCL IPO up only : $31 -> $160

- Strength in DeFi coins after Paul Atkins constructive comments : $MKR $UNI $AAVE. $SYRUP is also up only.

- $SOL ETFs coming with staking... in a few weeks ? According to Blockworks
- $KTA ran from $40M to $650M but is now down -50%
- On-chain memes : $USELESS ran to $100M mcap

Nature is healing

$3bn FDV now

Still too much

$TIA :
100 days from $2 to $20
475 days to roundtrip the whole move

When a pump is massive enough to offer a lot of mindshare and volume to a token, the time it will take to retrace the move can get very elongated

Elevator up, stairs down

This illustrates one of the risks of shorting in crypto

Both $DYM and $SAGA traded at $7bn-$8bn FDV at their top, quickly after their launch

If they had launched today, they would probably have topped at $700M-$800M FDV, ten times lower

Thank God I didn't have an easy way to short $CRCL so I didn't even try LMAO

Altcoins : 6 days of fun allowed every 3 months

I'm hoping for this to break down at some point

Send every XRP bull back to waging pronto

This April/May move on altcoins was basically a tiny echo bubble for coins that went crazy in late 2024 and then died in Q1 :

Memecoins
AI agent coins
VIRTUAL
SUI

The other top-performers are either revenue-generating projects or pure memes :

HYPE AAVE SYRUP
FARTCOIN SPX

As someone who is permanently skewed towards a long BTC / short altcoins positioning, this scenario is a scary one that could happen again :

In late Feb 2025, when $BTC broke down below its $92k support, it lost almost -20% in 3 days, and surprisingly, the altcoins outperformed during most of that move

One reason for that is that they had gotten destroyed during the previous weeks (there was a massive cascade down on Feb 2 for example), whereas BTC had not capitulated at all before that dump.

I think there is a risk we are going to see the same scenario again (because many altcoins are already rekt, while BTC is chilling above $100k), but it's not my base assumption.
My base scenario is for $BTC to bottom between here and $98k, without a meaningful outperformance from altcoins.