🌎#recession #world #economy
NRD: the probability of a global recession is close to zero. The global economy has solid and improving momentum, which bodes well for global equities.

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🛢#oil #seasonality
February is historically the month when oil prices hit their annual lows.

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❗️🇺🇸#stocks #us #tradewars #history
S&P 500 at the height of the trade wars during Trump's first term in 2019, and the present day.

According to experts at Vanda Research, the U.S. stock market may have played a crucial role in shaping Trump's approach to trade wars.

In 2019, the S&P 500 fell sharply as Trump began imposing tariffs on major trading partners. However, he unexpectedly rolled back the tariffs on Mexico and struck a deal with China shortly thereafter, and S&P 500 rebounded quickly.

Something similar can now be observed ...

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🇺🇸#stocks #us #individualinvestors #sentiment
The proportion of 'bears' among individual investors in the U.S. stock market is at a historic high.

Over the past 30 years, such strong bearish sentiment has occurred only in 1990, 2009, and 2022, each time preceding the emergence of a bull market in the S&P 500.

We are unlikely to see the same market reaction this time. The key difference today is that the correction is not as deep as it was in 1990, 2009, and 2022 — experts

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🇺🇸#stocks #us #bubble #analogy
US stock market bubble may continue to expand for a long time—possibly around 600 trading sessions—if compared to the Dotcom bubble — experts

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🇪🇺#FEZ #etf #europe #seasonality
Historically, the SPDR Eurostoxx 50 ETF has started to grow in April.

🌟 Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser

🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #sentiment
Carson: historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll surpasses 50% for five straight weeks, US stocks have shown an average return of 21% over the next 12 months, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990.

This extremely rare situation is unfolding right now. In the past 35 years, it has happened only three times.
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The proportion of 'bears' among individual investors in the U.S. stock market is at a historic high (chart)

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⚠️🇺🇸#tradewars #us #tariffs #economy
Trump's reciprocal tariffs will raise the average U.S. import tariff rate to its highest level since the early 1900s. If these tariffs remain at this level for an extended period, they will pose a significant risk to both the U.S. and global economies.

#opinion If Trump begins to negotiate and tariffs begin to fall, it would be a strong bullish surprise for the markets and likely trigger a significant rally. On the other hand, if tariffs remain high for an extended period of time, it could have serious negative consequences for both risk assets and the broader economy.
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The U.S. is imposing reciprocal tariffs on imports from almost every country in the world. Major economies, including China, Japan, the EU and Canada, have already vowed to retaliate.

Trump tariff rollout opens new era of risk for global economy

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⚠️🇺🇸#economy #us #unemployment
Expectations for rising unemployment in the U.S. have reached historic highs.

Over the past half century, every time unemployment expectations have reached such high levels, the U.S. has experienced a recession. #recession

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🇺🇸#analogy #us #economy #stocks #history
the current state of the U.S. economy, politics and stock market bears a striking resemblance to President Nixon's first term:

- Like Trump, Nixon imposed a 10% tariff on imports #tariffs

- Both leaders rose to power on a wave of populism #election

- Nixon sought to create a rift between China and the Soviet Union - Trump is pursuing a similar strategy by trying to divide China and Russia #geopolitics

- Nixon sought to end the Vietnam War - similarly, Trump is working to end the conflict in Ukraine.

- Both presidents expressed deep skepticism of the Washington establishment and the mainstream media #politics

If history is repeating itself, we may be on the verge of a sharp decline in the S&P 500 - followed by a swift and robust recovery … but isn’t guaranteed to.

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🇺🇸#VIX #stocks #us #history
A highly unusual event occurred - one that has only happened four times in the past 40 years of observation. The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the "fear index," spiked to 50 and then quickly dropped back to 30 based on daily closing prices, all in a very short period of time. Historically, this type of move has occurred as the S&P 500 bottoms out and prepares for a new uptrend.

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🌎#commodity #cycles #macro
MUFG: we are in the early stages of a commodities supercycle — report

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⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #macro
Inflation in the U.S. continues to mirror the patterns of the 1970s.

The current situation bears a strong resemblance to that era - but instead of an oil embargo, the U.S. now faces restrictions on rare earth metals.

Amid ongoing trade wars, the commodities market could experience a sharp upswing similar to the 1970s. — experts
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MarketDesk: Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)

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🇺🇸#buyback #stocks #us
US companies are announcing share buybacks at a record pace.
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Since 2011, share buyback programs have been the main driver of growth in the S&P 500 (chart)

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⚠️🇺🇸#economy #us #recession #sentiment
US companies are seeing a sharp drop in new orders. The New Orders Expectations Indicator from the regional Federal Reserve Banks has fallen to levels that typically signal an impending US recession.
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The unemployment outlook is another sign that a U.S. recession could be on the way (chart)

BCA Research warns of a 75% chance of a US recession in the next three months due to trade wars and policy uncertainties = bearish for S&P500

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🇺🇸#USD #fx #short #sentiment
Investment assets managers have significantly ramped up their bets against the dollar, with short positions reaching record highs. Historically, such extreme levels of bearish sentiment have often marked a turning point, with the dollar index finding a bottom and staging a rebound. Currently, the dollar (DXY) looks oversold against a basket of global currencies.

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🌎#fx #maro #history
many investors fear that the US dollar may continue to weaken due to rising government debt and risky fiscal policies in the US. As a result, they are willing to consider other global currencies to partially replace the dollar in their investment portfolios. Below is a classification of some of these currencies:

🔸 Cyclical currencies (#AUD, #NZD, #CAD, #SEK, #NOK, #GBP): perform well in strong equity markets but lag in downturns. Offer higher yields with greater risk and lower liquidity than #USD or #EUR. #SGD is a liquid alternative that often moves inversely to USD.

🔸 Defensive currencies (#CHF, #JPY, #CNY): hold up better during market stress with lower yields. CHF and JPY are classic safe havens, preferred for stability and capital preservation. #CNY shows low volatility against USD.

🔸 Emerging market currencies (#BRL, #MXN, #ZAR #COP): offer the highest yields but come with high volatility, low liquidity, and capital controls. They may experience sharp declines in risk-offenvironments or when country-specific factors are at play, and tend to attract mostly experienced and risk-tolerant investors.

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🇺🇸#buyback #stocks #us
U.S. companies are actively repurchasing their own shares through buyback programs.

Historically, buyback programs have been a significant driver of S&P 500 growth (chart)

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📊 Scorpi18 portfolio return (20 Jun. 2025):

- WEEK: -1%
- MONTH: -2%
- YEAR: +32%
- SINCE 2014: +721%

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'