🔆 Why El Niño Is Hard to Predict

📍 El Niño remains a major challenge in climate forecasting due to dynamic ocean-atmosphere interactions
✅ 🌊 ENSO has 3 phases: El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool), and neutral.
✅ 🌀 Climate models struggle due to late-emerging ENSO signals (only in early summer).
✅ 🌬️ Westerly wind bursts and Indian Ocean anomalies can trigger or dampen ENSO.
✅ 🧪 New model: Recharge Oscillator (RO) simulates ENSO as a contest between sea-surface temp & sub-surface heat.
✅ 🌐 Disagreements remain on which ocean basin is most influential in modelling.

📝 Prelims Question:
Which of the following best describes the ENSO phenomenon?
A. Only a Pacific Ocean event
B. Ocean-atmosphere interaction with 3 phases
C. Caused by monsoonal winds
D. Predictable using historical data
Answer: B

📝 Mains Question (GS1 – Geography):
What makes the prediction of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon difficult? Discuss the implications for global weather forecasting and agriculture.

MPPSC Previous Year ( PYQ )

Forwarded from UPSC Mapping Prelims Mains

🔆 Why El Niño Is Hard to Predict

📍 El Niño remains a major challenge in climate forecasting due to dynamic ocean-atmosphere interactions
✅ 🌊 ENSO has 3 phases: El Niño (warm), La Niña (cool), and neutral.
✅ 🌀 Climate models struggle due to late-emerging ENSO signals (only in early summer).
✅ 🌬️ Westerly wind bursts and Indian Ocean anomalies can trigger or dampen ENSO.
✅ 🧪 New model: Recharge Oscillator (RO) simulates ENSO as a contest between sea-surface temp & sub-surface heat.
✅ 🌐 Disagreements remain on which ocean basin is most influential in modelling.

📝 Prelims Question:
Which of the following best describes the ENSO phenomenon?
A. Only a Pacific Ocean event
B. Ocean-atmosphere interaction with 3 phases
C. Caused by monsoonal winds
D. Predictable using historical data
Answer: B

📝 Mains Question (GS1 – Geography):
What makes the prediction of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon difficult? Discuss the implications for global weather forecasting and agriculture.

#GS1 #Geography #Climate #ENSO #ElNino #Prelims2026 #UPSC #prelims

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