EURGBP Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- EURGBP broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8700

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Citigroup Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- Citigroup broke key resistance level 85.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 90.00

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Silver Wave Analysis – 2 July 2025

- Silver reversed from support level 35.50

- Likely to rise to resistance level 37.30

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/07/03 (GMT)

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Services PMI — Exp: 51.0 Actual: 50.6

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Composite PMI Actual: 51.3

06:30 🇨🇭 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% | -0.1% Actual: 0.2% | 0.1%

07:50 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 48.7 Actual: 49.6

07:50 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.5 Actual: 49.2

07:55 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 49.4 Actual: 49.7

07:55 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 50.4

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.0 Actual: 50.5

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.2 Actual: 50.6

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.3 Actual: 52.8

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.7 Actual: 52.0

08:30 🇬🇧 BOE Credit Conditions Survey

11:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 120K Actual: 147K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.3% Actual: 4.1%

12:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings — Exp: 0.3% | 3.9% Actual: 0.2% | 3.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 Change in Private Payrolls — Exp: 110K Actual: 74K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 240K Actual: 233K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1960K Actual: 1964K

12:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance — Exp: -69.9B Actual: -71.5B

12:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance — Exp: -6.0B Actual: -5.9B

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 53.1 Actual: 52.9

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.8 Actual: 52.9

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 50.8 Actual: 50.8


[Updated in real time]

Contradictory signals from the US labour market

ADP data for June showed a decline in US private sector employment of 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. However, as was the case then, this may be a temporary setback, as the indicator of planned layoffs showed a decline from nearly 94,000 to 48,000 last month, which is 1.6% less than a year earlier. Planned layoffs peaked in April, when companies were shocked by the severity of tariffs, but the situation has stabilised in recent months.

The publication of ADP figures could cause increased market nervousness, reducing risk appetite, as it showed a steady decline in labour market activity from a peak of +221,000 in October, with a gradual decline and a shift to contraction in the month just ended. The official figures released on Thursday show the same overall trend, but can vary significantly from month to month. Last October was the first month of decline by 1,000 between two strong months.

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Bitcoin is preparing for new heights

The crypto market capitalisation approached $3.40 trillion at the end of the day on Wednesday, adding nearly 3% in 24 hours at the time of writing. Bitcoin's momentum towards the $110K mark created an environment for even greater gains in altcoins, with Ethereum jumping 6% and Dogecoin and Cardano rising more than 7%.

The sentiment indicator rose to 73, returning to the upper limit of the last three months' range—an important preparatory stage for the first cryptocurrency's further upward movement.

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⚠️ USA — Non-Farm Employment Change at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 144K

🕒 Exp: 120K

🎯 Fact.: 147K 📈

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Rate at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 4.2%

🕒 Exp: 4.3%

🎯 Fact.: 4.1% 📈

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⚠️ USA — Unemployment Claims at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 237K

🕒 Exp: 240K

🎯 Fact.: 233K 📈

⚠️ USA — ISM Services PMI at 03:00 GMT

✔️ Prev: 49.9

🕒 Exp: 50.8

🎯 Fact.: 50.8

EURJPY Wave Analysis – 3 July 2025

- EURJPY broke resistance level of 169.55

- Likely to rise to resistance level 72.00

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EURCAD Wave Analysis – 3 July 2025

- EURCAD reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.5800

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/07/04 (GMT)

08:30 🇬🇧 Construction PMI — Exp: 48.6 Actual: 48.8

18:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

JPMorgan Chase Wave Analysis – 3 July 2025

- JPMorgan broke key resistance level 280.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 300.00

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GBPCHF Wave Analysis – 3 July 2025

- GBPCHF reversed from strong support level 1.0785

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0950

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Euro and equities rise on dollar weakness

The US dollar is losing ground. Its index is being pressured by more than just White House policy, a cooling economy and rising expectations of an upcoming Fed rate cut. The dollar’s main rival is gaining strength. The trade-weighted euro reached a new high, boosted by Germany’s fiscal stimulus, increased EU defence spending and capital inflows into European securities markets.

EURUSD surged to its highest level in over three years. The current 9-day rally is the longest since 2024 and has alarmed the ECB. Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that $1.17 for the euro is acceptable, but $1.20 is not good news for the export-oriented Eurozone economy.

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EURCAD Wave Analysis – 4 July 2025

- EURCAD reversed from support level 1.5950

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6100

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 4 July 2025

- Bitcoin reversed from long-term resistance level 110000.00

- Likely to fall to support level 105000.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/07/05 (GMT)

09:00 All OPEC-JMMC Meetings

15:45 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks


[Updated in real time]