#WaveAnalysis #C

Citigroup falling inside minor impulse wave 1

Likely to fall to support level 54.80

Citigroup falling inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of March.

The price earlier broke the round support level 60.00 coinciding with the support trendline of the extended up channel from and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.

Given the strength of the active impulse wave 1, Citigroup can be expected to fall further to the next support level 54.80 (former support from February).

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The dollar pauses after a climb
The US dollar is losing 0.2% since the start of the day on Wednesday against a basket of major currencies, signalling traders' eagerness to lock in some profits after a 2.5% rally over the previous seven days.

Interestingly, dollar fatigue was evident shortly after Powell's admission that inflation was on a higher trajectory than the central bank expected. The Fed is so far following market expectations, which have changed impressively since 8 March, when a pro-inflationary jobs report turned the dollar higher. The dollar's upward momentum got a fresh boost after last week's inflation report, as it was "bought on rumours" of a change in Fed sentiment. In this context, Powell's words are seen as "selling the fact".

Technically, #DXY signs of fatigue are rising near the October reversal area. On the daily timeframes, the RSI has entered the overbought territory. This was the case just before the start of the September 2022 and 2023 corrections, albeit noticeably below the price peak.

The overbought dollar accumulated from the gains since early March sets up a period of dollar consolidation from the current 106.0 to 104.5-105.0. This would be a classic correction, opening the way for a new wave of DXY growth to the 110 or even 115 area. But this will be a story with a different information narrative, as the current driver is exhausted.

A reversal after some fluctuations is possible, as was the case in October last year. The chances of such a scenario will increase if the global economy stays on the path of moderate growth, which will reduce the difference between the dynamics of the US economy and the rest of the developed world.

#WaveAnalysis

#EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0685

Likely to fall to support level 1.0600

EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.0685, former multi-month support from February, acting as the support after it was broken.

The downward reversal from this resistance level 1.0685 continues the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (3) from December.

Given the multi-month downtrend, EURUSD can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 1.0600.

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The #crypto market was relatively quick to digest the sell-off that gripped markets following Israel's attack on Iran. The cap rose 4.7% in 24 hours to $2.33 trillion, but this is down from $2.62 trillion seven days earlier.

Halving and strong technical support are supporting a 'buy on dips' pattern in Bitcoin, and this is affecting the rest of the cryptocurrencies. The halving will take place on Saturday night. The technical picture now suggests that BTCUSD is successfully holding within a corrective pattern, finding support on dips to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the January lows.
However, bullish positions are not as strong as they were earlier in the month, with the 50-day moving average acting as resistance. A strong rally above $67 will be needed to overcome this bearish signal.

#WaveAnalysis

#GBPUSD broke key support level 1.2535

– Likely to fall to support level 1.2335

GBPUSD currency pair continues to fall strongly after breaking the key support level 1.2535, which has been steadily reversing the price from December.

The breakout of the support level 1.2535 coincided with true breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward ABC correction (B) from last October .

Given the strong bearish sterling sentiment seen across the FX markets today, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2335, target for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.

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Oil Poised for Breakout: Key Support Levels Tested
Oil prices have retreated to their lowest levels since late March, approaching a critical support level.

WTI barrels dipped to $80.60 early on Monday. The price found support at the $80.0-$80.50 zone a month ago before accelerating higher and breaking through the resistance of the ascending channel. Last week's sell-off pushed the price back into this channel.

The macroeconomic backdrop is stacked against bulls: US oil inventories are rising, the number of oil rigs is higher than at any time since September, and the IMF is forecasting an increase in OPEC+ quotas from mid-year. The dollar is strengthening, and stock indexes are falling, adding pressure to the price.

The price per barrel is testing the 50-day moving average (currently at $80.60). A close above it in January sparked a three-month rally.

Through $79.60, just $1 below, lies the 200-day moving average. A break below it could signal a shift in the long-term trend. In the past two years, there has been a surge in volatility after touching the 200-day average: the market either broke decisively above it or bounced sharply off it.

These days, the 200-day moving average coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the December lows to the April peak. A break below would suggest a resumption of the long-term downtrend, bringing prices back to cycle lows around $70. The ability to hold above the 200-day moving average would suggest a Fibonacci extension with a potential upside target near $100.

Thus, the oil price action in the coming days deserves attention from both traders (promising volatility) and investors, as it will determine the long-term trend.

#WaveAnalysis #INTC

Intel broke support zone

Likely to fall to support level 32.50

Intel continues to fall inside the sharp minor impulse wave 1, which previously broke the support zone lying at the intersection of the two daily channels from December and February of 2023.

The active impulse wave 1 belongs to the higher order impulse wave (3) from the start of March .

Give the earlier breakout of the strong support at 34.95 (top of the upward gap from October), Intel can be expected to fall further to the next support level 32.50, which has been reversing the price from August.

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The capitalisation of the #crypto market over the past 24 hours has added only 0.15% to $2.44 trillion. Crypto sentiment indices remain in the ‘greed’ territory, scoring 71 points, compared to 73 points the day before.

#Bitcoin added about a quarter of a percent during the day, reaching $66.5K. Early on Tuesday morning, the price briefly exceeded $67.1K, touching the 50-day MA, but then retreated. It seems that this time, the crypto market is waiting for a signal from stock indices rather than giving such a signal about risk appetite. The calm may be illusory and quickly come to an end. We reiterate that consolidation above $67.1K could open the way to the $72-74K area. A reversal to the downside could end with a quick rollback to the $60K area.

According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds over the past week have decreased by $206 million after an outflow of $126 million the previous week. Investments in Bitcoin decreased by $192 million, in Ethereum - by $34 million, in Solana - by $0.3 million.

Strong profit-taking in gold or the beginning of a reversal?
Gold is under pressure this week, having pulled back to the $2300 per troy ounce level. The decline since Friday's close is over 3.7%. The formal trigger is a more moderate escalation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict than expected at the beginning of the month. However, we view the current pullback as a welcome technical correction that could develop into a bear market.

Last Friday, the price of a troy ounce of gold on the spot market broke the $2400 mark for the second time in history. And once again, there was strong resistance at this round level. Since the beginning of the week, we have seen systematic intraday selling of gold and silver, not related to the stock market or currencies. That is, traders focus on this idea, ignoring global fluctuations in risk demand.

In a correction, the price has already now pulled back below the 76.4% intermediate retracement level of the rally from the February lows to the April peak.

The downside amplitude over these two days, which is the largest in the last two years, cannot be ignored.

On the daily timeframes, the RSI has pulled back sharply from the overbought area, also indicating an active downward move. Earlier, we noted a divergence between this indicator and the price, where two RSI touches of the 85 level were at $2100 and $2350. This was an important precursor to the decline, the development of which we are now seeing.

Nevertheless, the positive scenario remains valid as long as the price is above $2360, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level lies. We assume that gold is capable of returning to the upside after a technical shakeout.
A sell-off in gold over the next couple of days could quickly take the price to $2360. A dip below would be an important first signal of a true reversal.

The ability to go below $2185-2200 within a couple of weeks would raise the question of a long-term trend reversal with a potential downside target before the end of the year at $1900.

Flash Eurozone PMIs revitalised interest in the Euro
Boosted interest in the Euro emerged after preliminary PMI estimates showed a surprising acceleration in the services sector, which was able to offset the negativity from industrial weakness significantly.

Both France (46.2 to 44.9) and Germany (41.9 to 42.2) saw their manufacturing PMIs fall short of expectations (46.9 and 42.8, respectively). This reinforces the notion that the Eurozone industry, in contraction territory since June 2022, has seen its decline intensify since the beginning of the year. This data could bring the start of the ECB's rate-cut cycle closer.

The services sector, however, paints a contrasting picture. It has been accelerating since the beginning of the year and entered growth territory in March. While France's services sector edged into expansion territory (index at 50.5), Germany marked a significant rise from 50.1 to 53.3. The eurozone-wide services PMI rose from 51.5 to 52.9, its highest level since May 2023.

In our view, the weakness in the Eurozone industries should not be ignored, as it could again be an early signal of a weakening economy, increasing speculation of an imminent rate cut. Short-term, however, the positive surprise from the services sector gives EURUSD a potential rebound towards 1.07 after a 2.5% pullback from 1.0880 to 1.06 earlier this month.

#WaveAnalysis

WTI crude oil reversed from support zone

Likely to rise to resistance level 86.00

WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the round support level 80.00 (low of wave (iv) from March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.

The upward reversal from the support level 80.00 stopped the previous ABC correction (4) – forming the daily Hammer.

Give the strength of the support level 80.00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 86.00 (which stopped waves (3) and B).

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#WaveAnalysis

#USDCAD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.3840

Likely to fall to support level 1.3600

USDCAD currency pair continues to fall after the pair reversed down with the weekly Shooting Star from the major long-term resistance level 1.3840, which has been reversing the pair from 2022.

The resistance level 1.3840 was strengthened by the upper weekly Bollinger Band.

Give the overbought weekly Stochastic, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.3600.

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