💵 🇺🇸 🌐 Important: current account balance predicts average USD income in a country. But US is a strong outlier. This is hegemonic USD 'exhorbitant privelege' in action - dollar props up living standards! Model suggests as USD hegemony erodes, US living standards will fall 27%! - Philip Pilkington

https://kki.hu/en/reindustrialization-in-the-age-of-fragmentation/

📎 Philip Pilkington

🏭 🇮🇳 📝 For those betting on India to replace China's manufacturing role in the west...

🔶️ "India neglected the development of an industrial base and banked on service exports being the main driver of growth"

🔶️ "Not only has it not created the necessary jobs for such a large population but it’s also going to be under increasing pressure from technological change"

🔶️ "Same goes for much of the IT services industry"

https://www.ft.com/content/149681f0-ea71-42b0-b85b-86073354fb73

https://archive.ph/IO9Nb

🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸 Today, during his visit to China, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. One of the agenda items was the discussion of China's supplies of machine tools, microelectronics and nitrocellulose used in Russian military production.

After the meetings with the Chinese leadership, Blinken stated that if China does not take measures to resolve the problem, then Washington may do so. Essentially, the politician implied the possibility of imposing sanctions on China.

🔻Shortly before the secretary's visit, The Wall Street Journal published an insider report about the preparation of restrictions against several Chinese banks that allegedly planned to disconnect from the global banking system.

However, soon after the publication, Reuters reported that American politicians, although they discussed such an option, do not have a specific plan for its implementation. The reason was the concern that this could strike a blow not only to bilateral, but also to global trade.

🔻Another option is also possible - in case of an unsatisfactory outcome for the U.S., new restrictions on specific Chinese companies doing business with Russia may follow. Since 2022, Washington has resorted to this kind of measures several times.

It is noteworthy that Blinken's threats came after the official confirmation of information about Vladimir Putin's visit to China in May. It is quite possible that the situation with potential U.S. sanctions against China will be clarified precisely after this trip.
#China #Russia #USA
@rybar together with @awaken_dragon

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🚭 🇺🇸 Biden admin won't ban menthol cigarettes as it courts Black voters, WSJ reports

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/menthol-cigarette-ban-explained-0c41df7a

https://archive.ph/wSBAh

✝️ 🇺🇸 🐣 “The 17 states with the highest general fertility rates are all designated by Cook Political Report as Republican, or GOP-leaning, including such Republican strongholds as North Dakota, Nebraska, Louisiana, Utah, and Texas.”

🔶️ “By contrast, the bottom six states—and nine of the ten states with the lowest fertility rates—are all either Democratic or Democratic-leaning.”

🔶️ “Others near the bottom include Rhode Island, Oregon, Massachusetts, Washington, and California. Only two Democratic states have birthrates above the national average, compared with 20 Republican states with above-average fertility.”

https://www.city-journal.org/article/baby-blues

To have a possible TFR of just 2.27 and so many excess deaths is a disaster for Syria. Same for Libya with a TFR of 1.90. Both these countries future seems to have been stripped away by war and a terrible demographic downturn (including high emigration due to the wars).

🐣 📊 ♀️ When women in their late 40s and 50s end up with more kids than they thought was ideal, desired, or expected at ages 14-22, they tend to have happier life trajectories.

🔶️ This is not true if they end up with fewer kids than they stated in youth.

📎 Lyman Stone

📖 🇷🇺 On February 9 (22), 1918, the famous “Ice March” (1st Kuban) began from Rostov-on-Don to Ekaterinodar with brutal continuous battles.

🖋 From that day on, the epic of the White struggle, the struggle for national Russia, began, full of sacrifices and valor.

https://telegra.ph/Ice-March-04-26

🇬🇧 🇺🇦 💷 UK Secretary of State for Defence:

🔶️ Today I briefed more than 50 nations on the UK’s largest ever military donation package which includes funding and gifting.

🔶️ The UK's backing for Ukraine is absolute because we understand what would happen if Putin were to win. Simply put, he wouldn't stop there. We will lead other nations to ensure that does not happen.

📎 Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP

📢 🇺🇸 🇮🇶 US-led Operation Inherent Resolve on Twitter/X:

🔶️ We strongly condemn the lethal attack on the civilian Khor Mor gas field in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR). These acts severely threaten Iraq’s stability and the prosperity of its people.

📎 CJTFOIR

🇨🇳 🤝 🇻🇳 Vietnamese & Chinese coast guard to conduct a joint patrol along the maritime border in the Gulf of Tonkin Apr 27-29. This is the 1st patrol after China announced its new straight baselines in the Gulf of Tonkin

https://www.qdnd.vn/quoc-te/doi-ngoai-quoc-phong/canh-sat-bien-xuat-phat-tuan-tra-lien-hop-tren-vung-bien-lan-can-duong-phan-dinh-vinh-bac-bo-774271

📎 South China Sea Connect

↖️ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 New map — Major military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- 1/3 of US Navy Fleet in theater
- Balikatan underway, many major firsts
- Taiwan inauguration May 20 & potential Chinese response
- Increased PLA military activity around Taiwan, 120+ ships in SCS

📎 Ian Ellis